News
The power of a simple 3-way truth scale — LessWrong
56+ min ago (440+ words) Suppose you want to decide whether you can do a couch-to-5k fitness program this year. I'm going to walk you through how to use a blank notebook and a 3-way truth scale. Open your blank notebook to the first page,…...
Old SUNY Dorm Logic is not helping rural population collapse in NY. — LessWrong
2+ hour, 9+ min ago (1406+ words) Published on February 23, 2026 1:28 AM GMTThe North Country of New York runs along the Canadian border at the top of the state. It is where I grew up, my grandfather walked across the border with about a third grade education not…...
The world won't end, but we should be ashamed for trying — LessWrong
14+ hour, 36+ min ago (228+ words) To many people it seems apparent that nukes are inevitable, but this is simply false. Nukes came about from a particularly nasty set of circumstances: Now, I'm not saying nukes wouldn't have been developed e.g. in the 60s, but by the time…...
First Forecasting Dojo Group Meetup — LessWrong
15+ hour, 55+ min ago (93+ words) The first meetup of the forecasting practice group is here! We'll start with a short calibration exercise, followed by a pastcasting session using Sage " where we forecast on historical events with hidden outcomes and immediately discuss our reasoning and results....
LessWrong's goals overlap HowTruthful's — LessWrong
1+ day, 23+ hour ago (1234+ words) Published on February 21, 2026 4:19 AM GMTOn my personal website I have a link to my posts here, with the sentences, "Want to read about my HowTruthful project? I post in a community whose goals overlap HowTruthful's." The "I post" in present…...
ARENA 8.0 - Call for Applicants — LessWrong
2+ day, 9+ hour ago (829+ words) Apply here to participate in ARENA 8.0 before 11:59pm on Sunday March 8th, 2026 (anywhere on Earth). ARENA has been successfully run seven times, with alumni going on to become MATS scholars, LASR participants and Pivotal participants; AI safety engineers at Apollo Research, METR,…...
Aleatoric Uncertainty Is A Skill Issue — LessWrong
3+ day, 14+ hour ago (537+ words) Epistemic status: shitpost with a point You know the textbook distinction. Epistemic uncertainty is what you don't know. Aleatoric uncertainty is what can't be known " irreducible randomness baked into the fabric of reality itself. Classic examples of aleatoric uncertainty: coin…...
Power Laws Are Not Enough — LessWrong
3+ day, 23+ hour ago (360+ words) Published on February 19, 2026 4:31 AM GMTThis is a linkpost for work done as part of MATS 9.0 under the mentorship of Richard Ngo. Loss scaling laws are among the most important empirical findings in deep learning. This post synthesises evidence that, though…...
Where Will Call Center Workers Go? — LessWrong
1+ week, 4+ day ago (452+ words) Duplex" models[2]are in their infancy, but they deliver audio responses without turn taking latency and are posed to cross the uncanny valley of voice interaction. Interruptions and subtle interjections in human dialogue are an important part of natural sounding…...
[Hiring] Principia Research Fellows — LessWrong
1+ week, 4+ day ago (296+ words) Principia " London " Fixed-term (6 months) with potential extension " Starting ASAP We are launching'Principia, a new technical research agenda led by'Andrew Saxe focused on'theoretical models of representation learning and generalization in modern machine learning systems. We are hiring'23 research fellows to join…...